“Risk is defined as the probability and potential severity of an accident or loss arising from exposure to various hazards, including injury to individuals and the loss of resources. Risk management is the structured process of weighing the potential costs of such risks against the possible benefits of allowing them to remain uncontrolled.” In the aviation industry, the acronym “PAVE” denotes hazards relating to the pilot, aircraft, environment, and external pressures.
Top and Emerging Risks in Aviation
Operational Risk
The aviation sector is increasingly exposed to threats that compromise operational stability and needs to realise the importance of risk management in aviation. One growing concern is the deliberate tampering with global navigation systems, notably through signal interference and spoofing attacks on essential Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). These disruptions have frequently occurred around Egypt, Lebanon, the Black Sea, and near the Russian borders with Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus. Non-compliance with standard operating procedures heightens operational risk and can result in accidents, regulatory sanctions, and a decline in public trust.
Supply Chain Risk
Aviation is a critical component of global supply chains. Interference in the cargo supply chain represents a serious risk. In mid-2024, there were multiple sabotage attempts on cargo flights, allegedly linked to Russian entities.
Cyber Risk
In July 2024, CrowdStrike issued an update to Falcon Sensor, a security software designed to detect breaches and hacking attempts. This update included a faulty configuration file that adversely affected Windows-based systems. The aviation sector was significantly impacted, with critical airline functions such as ticketing, scheduling, and aircraft servicing disrupted. This event underscores the aviation industry’s vulnerability to cybersecurity risk.
Security Risk
Security breaches can severely disrupt supply chains, often causing significant delays. Incidents such as the discovery of onboard explosives, bomb threats, or airport security lapses can bring operations to a halt. Recent bomb threats targeting both Indian and international airlines have led to flight delays and airport disruptions. In another instance, a security breach at a Japanese airport led to the evacuation of the airside area, though the procedure lacked risk-based assessments. Explosions caused by walkie-talkies and pagers in Beirut served as a stark reminder of the need for robust security measures across the logistics chain.
Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical volatility poses persistent challenges to aviation, particularly in conflict-prone areas. Frequent drone and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) activity necessitate heightened vigilance from air defence and security personnel, increasing overflight risks and operational unpredictability. In Africa, political instability and militant activities shape aviation security. The 2024 Middle East conflict significantly elevated aviation risks in the region, resulting in frequent airspace closures across Israel, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. Airlines had to reconsider flight paths or suspend operations. A Yemen Airlines aircraft was unlawfully seized at Sana’a International Airport, exemplifying the direct impact of local conflicts on aviation. Tensions around Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula also remain high, posing constant threats to air travel. Additionally, geopolitical disputes have affected passenger experience. Transport Canada introduced heightened screening for passengers travelling to India, leading to extended delays. The recent India–Pakistan conflict prompted the closure of several Indian airports, increasing airspace congestion and causing widespread disruptions.
Financial Risk
Despite stabilising since the post-pandemic surge in 2022, jet fuel prices continue to pose a financial burden for airlines, remaining a major cost driver and influencing ticket pricing. Price fluctuations significantly impact budgets and fare structures. Furthermore, responding to security incidents often necessitates increased investment in protection and incident recovery, adding to operational expenditure.
Reputational Risk
Security incidents extend beyond operational ramifications, potentially damaging an airline’s reputation among stakeholders and eroding long-standing goodwill.
Labour Risk
Labour shortages remain a persistent issue in aviation. Contributing factors include pandemic-era retirements, difficulties attracting new talent, insufficient training programmes, and the high cost of flight crew training. In April 2024, the Royal Aeronautical Society reported that the industry would require approximately 300,000 new pilots, 300,000 maintenance engineers, and 600,000 additional cabin crew members over the next decade. Meeting this demand appears increasingly unlikely. The shortage is already driving up wages and affecting all areas of aviation, posing a long-term challenge.
Regulatory Risk
Regulatory risks are growing in importance, particularly as sustainability standards evolve globally. Aviation companies must now adapt to diverging regulatory requirements. For example, the United States has scaled back certain climate commitments, whereas the European Union remains committed to achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050. A key development is the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which mandates detailed ESG disclosures by thousands of organisations, including aviation firms. While this aims to standardise reporting, it also introduces new compliance costs and complexity. Failure to meet these obligations or errors in reporting can increase regulatory risk substantially.
Climate-related Risk
Climate change is destabilising the jet stream by increasing the temperature differential between air masses, resulting in more frequent and severe turbulence. These unpredictable air currents can cause injuries and significant aircraft damage. A 2024 Singapore Airlines flight from London encountered such turbulence, injuring 31 passengers and resulting in one fatality. This incident highlights the growing impact of climate change on flight safety and passenger experience.
Fraud Risk
Fraud and organised crime are increasingly prevalent around airports. Criminal groups—often operating in pairs or small teams—target travellers and escape quickly on motorbikes. In some cases, corrupt insiders provide information to facilitate these crimes. Airports in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the United States have reported a higher incidence of such activity. This growing threat necessitates stronger fraud prevention measures and improved traveller protection protocols.
Technical Risk
Ageing telecommunications systems present a growing technical risk, compromising safety and efficiency. At Newark Airport, a damaged copper wire caused a 90-second communications blackout, leading to widespread delays and cancellations. Additionally, system failures remain a risk factor in aviation accidents. Modernising outdated infrastructure is essential for safeguarding air travel.
Health and Safety Risk
Global health emergencies such as pandemics pose severe threats to aviation. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a collapse in air travel demand and operations. In 2020 and 2021, the global aviation sector incurred combined losses of $244 billion and $146 billion respectively. Proactive health risk management process and contingency planning are vital to mitigating the effects of future pandemics.
Recommendations
Aviation risk management relies on two principal approaches: probabilistic and deterministic. The probabilistic method uses historical data and statistical models to forecast the likelihood of risks, enabling prioritisation of the most probable threats. In contrast, the deterministic approach assumes that unless actively mitigated, risks are likely to materialise—focusing on preparedness for worst-case scenarios. Integrating both approaches is essential for robust and comprehensive risk mitigation strategies.
To build a resilient aviation ecosystem, the following recommendations are proposed:
- Adopt a forward-thinking strategy incorporating diverse intelligence gathering and international coordination.
- Utilise advanced threat assessment tools to address evolving aviation threats.
- Implement innovative frameworks, including risk-based oversight and adaptive management systems, to foster a culture of resilience.
- Ensure timely and transparent information sharing to strengthen risk assessments.
- Promote a harmonised security approach, including scenario testing and regional standardisation of protocols.
- Leverage screening technologies and global agreements such as One Stop Security (OSS) to enhance security without compromising efficiency. Airlines should also consider blast-resistant cabin designs to minimise damage from onboard incidents.
- Establish a global, non-punitive reporting mechanism—independent of governments and airlines—led by IATA and ICAO. This would encourage transparent incident reporting and foster safety culture. IATA also recommends a standardised security taxonomy for outsourced security providers to meet growing regulatory demands.
- Invest in artificial intelligence and satellite-based navigation systems to mitigate GPS disruptions and drone incursions. Regulators should promote digital tools like Digital Trust Frameworks for secure data exchange and agile risk oversight. A live-data cloud platform can help airport supervisors identify emerging threats in real-time.
- Develop practical, scenario-based technical training supported by AI to enhance decision-making skills under pressure.
- Implement a geostrategic risk management framework to reform Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) procedures in high-conflict zones.
- Use financial instruments like futures and options to hedge against fuel price volatility. Fuel cost spikes can also accelerate the shift to alternative fuels. Securing aviation assets with robust insurance is another critical financial safeguard.
- Prioritise technological modernisation, including turbulence modelling, predictive maintenance, efficient engines, and flight optimisation tools.
Conclusion
To successfully navigate an increasingly complex risk landscape, the aviation industry must adopt a proactive mindset—constantly reassessing its risk environment, conducting scenario-based stress tests, and performing regular audits of its control systems. Embracing technological innovation, fostering inter-agency collaboration, and cultivating a responsive, risk-aware culture will be key indicators of effective risk governance. It is essential not only to address known risks but also to establish a dynamic framework capable of identifying and mitigating emerging threats, thereby ensuring long-term competitiveness and relevance.
FAQs on Risk in Aviation
Q1. What is a risk in aviation?
In aviation, risk is the likelihood and impact of harm from hazards such as technical failures, human error, or external threats. Categorised under PAVE (Pilot, Aircraft, Environment, External pressures), these risks can disrupt operations or endanger lives. Effective risk management identifies, evaluates, and mitigates threats to ensure safety and reliability in a complex and high-stakes environment.
Q2. What is the biggest risk in aviation?
Operational risk is the most critical in aviation, involving safety or continuity disruptions. Deliberate disruption of critical systems, procedural non-compliance, workforce gaps, and geopolitical instability amplify this risk. It is affected by multiple domains—technical, human, and political—making it essential to adopt real-time monitoring, strict SOPs, and international cooperation for effective risk mitigation and stable airline operations.
Q3. What is the risk management process in aviation?
Aviation risk management uses probabilistic (data-driven) and deterministic (worst-case planning) methods to assess and address threats. It includes real-time data sharing, scenario training, AI tools, and international coordination. This integrated approach helps detect risks early, improve decision-making, and maintain safety and efficiency across global aviation operations.
