“Justice is Served” — this was the first official communication from the Indian Army through its X handle at 1:51 AM on 7 May 2025. It announced the successful culmination of targeted strikes on terror hideouts under Operation Sindoor. While the strikes surprised Pakistan, they also caught Indian industry off guard. From an Enterprise Risk Management perspective, the question arises: was Op Sindoor a Black Swan or a Grey Rhino event for India Inc.?
Understanding the Rhino
A Black Swan is defined as a rare, unpredictable, and high-impact event and is often understood only in hindsight. On the other hand, a Grey Rhino represents a high-probability, high-impact threat that is visible and foreseeable but often neglected or underestimated. Risk management teams sometimes acknowledge such threats but delay action until the situation escalates into a crisis. In my assessment, Op Sindoor demonstrates all the classic indicators of a Grey Rhino.
The Warning Signs
Tensions along the India – Pakistan border have existed since independence. Historically, the region has witnessed numerous military flashpoints, and operations linked to Kargil, Uri, and Pulwama are well known. The geopolitical volatility exists and the possibility of military escalation has always been discussed. It is further reinforced by the fact that the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2025 identified “state-based armed conflict” as the top risk in its list of ten most pressing global threats for 2025. It highlights that the geopolitical risk assessment of an India – Pakistan confrontation was not only visible but also probable.
96-Hour Disruption
The 96-hour period between 7 May and 10 May 2025 revealed the real and immediate consequences of major military confrontation. The temporary closure of airspace, widespread power blackouts, and disruptions in transportation significantly affected industries, particularly in northern India. These events were not simple disruptions but resulted in tangible losses, delays, and operational uncertainty. The follow-up question is whether organizations were prepared to handle such an event. Did ERM teams identify scenarios and geopolitical threats like Op Sindoor in their risk registers? Was there any degree of preparedness or continuity planning in place across sectors to absorb the impact?
It’s Not Over Yet
It is also worth noting that Op Sindoor has not been terminated but suspended under a ceasefire arrangement. In his remarks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that the operation “is not over yet.” This important statement emphasizes the volatile nature
of the current situation and the need for risk identification. With the possibility of Op Sindoor 2.0 visible, have organizations taken the corrective actions? Have they reflected on the vulnerabilities exposed by Op Sindoor and acted to enhance their operational resilience?
Re-Prioritisation
In hindsight, Op Sindoor highlights how many ERM frameworks in Indian organizations may have misaligned their geopolitical risk focus. While significant attention is often paid to regions like Europe, the Middle East, or China, the risks simmering in our immediate neighbourhood tends to be overlooked. This is an opportune moment for risk professionals to reassess and re-priortise. The priority now must be to recalibrate enterprise risk assessments, incorporate realistic conflict scenarios and invest in resilience measures with focus on subcontinental geopolitics.
Preparing for Op Sindoor 2.0
As part of the ERM framework, there is merit in conducting scenario planning exercises or war-gaming simulations focused on regional flashpoints like India – Pakistan. These exercises strengthen preparedness and instill a culture of proactive risk management across the organisation and erm frameworks.The Grey Rhino of Op Sindoor has shown that ignoring the obvious doesn’t make the threat go away, the impact maybe more severe once the Rhino comes charging.
The author of the blog is Col Rahul Sahni (Retd) is a military veteran and ERM professional, currently heading crisis and risk initiatives at Hindalco Industries Ltd.
