Future of risks


Human history will always remember the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the prominent black swan events.

Covid- 19 has shown us the times which was not expected by any of us in human history. But, here we are, we all have gone through so much, on the way we lost many people from family, friends, also suffered a lot not just physically but mainly mentally. However, today, we are here and made it through the second wave of Covid and still standing strong. After going through the second wave which was at least 8-10 times dangerous than the first wave. Among all, it has the worst impact on us economically as there was the loss of many small businesses like restaurant chains and local vendors. It didn’t end here, even some big business has witnessed huge downfall especially when it comes to the automobiles industry which has lost Rs 2,300 crore per day due to COVID-19 lockdown said by Parliamentary panel. Moreover, it has affected the small ventures which were associated with it.

The silver lining over here is that it has made us understand that COVID risk management is the need of the hour. Companies need to understand how to manage such unexpected situations by following a proper risk management process. Well, getting back to the question, “are we prepared to fight back the third wave?”

To answer the question, I have two sub-questions to deal with:

  • First, is the vaccination drive is going at a pace that the third wave will not be a great challenge to face?
  • Second, and indispensably, are businesses ready to face the third wave? What are the steps taken by the government and businesses?

To answer the first question, let’s see the trend of doses provided to the people of India from January 2021. As per the data till August 2021, 63 crore doses have been administered in the country, according to the CoWin dashboard.

To conquer the battle, 925 million doses of three approved jabs have been given to the eligible population of India. According to the official data, about 70% of the country’s eligible population have received at least one dose vaccination. However, to vaccinate the eligible elderly population till Dec 2021 the drive needs to pick up the consistent speed to meet the target. However, the COVID risk after vaccination still exists as these vaccines are not 100% effective at preventing infection, some people who are fully vaccinated might still get COVID-19.

Now, to fasten up the process of vaccination drive, the government of India has started delivering Covid-19 vaccines by commercial drones said Dr.Samiran Panda, a senior government scientist. The chief scientist and head of epidemiology at the India Council of Medical Research Dr.Panda said that the trial run was successful and on the same day 10 people on the island took the jabs. Furthermore, the government is rely on drones that will be carrying 4.5kg or a maximum of 900 doses a day and will fly at least 70km to ferry doses.


Nevertheless, the third wave of Covid is inevitable as relief is provided to the travel restrictions around the country said to an organization of top Indian doctors. Furthermore, the Indian Medical Association (IMA), said that opening up these destinations and letting unvaccinated people congregate in these large gatherings are “potential super spreaders for the Covid third wave“.

Although, there is a huge decline in daily new cases in India over 40,000 in July 2021, down from the peaks of 400,000 in May. The main reason for the drop in numbers has largely been attributed to strict lockdowns by states which are now being eased.

According to another report, India may see a third wave of COVID-19 at peak in between October and November if a more noxious mutant than the present ones emerges by September, although its potency is expected to be much lower than the second wave, said by a scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of the pandemic. Moreover, A IIT-Kanpur scientist Manindra Agrawal is also a part of the three-member team of experts who are working on predicting any surge in infections. They also mentioned that if no new deadly variant will emerge then there won’t be any such changes in the current situation.

Let’s have a look at some statistics conducted by LocalCircles, a community social media platform, among citizens of India to know how confident do Indians feel about the preparatory situation to counterattack the third COVID wave in August-December 2021.

They collected  8,880 responses in a survey, and found out that 58% of citizens surveyed feel confident about the preparation to tackle the third wave of COVID, 26 % of respondents said they are “highly confident”. Furthermore, 32 % said they are “somewhat confident”.On the contrary, 25% noted that they “have very little confidence” and nearly 13% said they have “no confidence at all”, while 4 % did not have an opinion.

Stay tuned! will come up with part two to discuss the second, the most crucial question

Blog Published By: Ms.Kanchan Rathore, Student Risk Committee Member


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